What if?

[Cpl Smyth]

If there had not been a war in the east against Russia, what is your views on what would have happened in the west when the invasion occured?
I dont think that the out come would have been the same personally as the Germans would have been more in volume around Normandy at the time of the invasion and maybe would have stopped them leaving the beach. Now i know this is speculation and that i would have hated any other result than what did happen, but i cant help wondering what if? This is only one of many "What ifs" that i have but i dont wnt to inundate you with to many at this time..

[Dave]

I found an article recently that makes fairly uncomfortable reading at times but I think will go some way towards answering your question. Here's an excerpt:

After talking at Cambridge recently about the preponderance of the eastern front and the scale of the Red Army’s triumph, I was accosted by an angry young British historian. “Don’t you realise that we were pinning down 56 German divisions in France alone,” he said. “Without that the Red Army would have been heavily defeated.” What is less acknowledged is that without the Red Army pulverising 150 divisions, the allies would never have landed.

Original article HERE

It's also interesting that Operation Sealion - Hitler's plan to invade the UK - would almost certainly have failed. According to the famous "Wargame" carried out at Sandhurst in 1974 the Germans - without air superiority - would have been able to establish a beachhead in England, but eventually they would have been forced to surrender. Had not so many German resources been deployed on the Eastern front, however, then the likely outcome to this may also have been different....

[Jim]

Funnily enough i like the "What ifs" myself, purely on the fact that it can be a never ending conversation where an input by any one person can change the What if, of another, with his reply to the what if..

Hope that you understood that..

Great reply Dave as usual , and the link speaks volumes. Need to come back to this.

[Kelly]

OK, the Russians had 300 - 400 divisions, ridiculous amounts of armour and the largest airforce (ever?). The Luftwaffe destroyed the Russian airforce but couldn't beat the RAF. Our Navy was the best on the Seas. Although heavily outnumbered in all aspects we still held our own.

[Dave]

I agree with you Kelly. The article does make uncomfortable reading, but for me the bloke argues very strongly and has a good angle. He's dug in and I find it hard to ignore. In the end, though, he also has a book to sell

[Cpl Smyth]

The thing is Kelly, the Russians were not as well trained as we Brits or the Yanks were, infact the majority of them wasnt trained at all just given some bullets and told to pick up a weapon when a comrade was shot. As for the pilots they were learnt how to fly basics and then sent off to war? I am not taking away the fighting skills of the Allies far from it, but you have to look at the way others fought and compare , take the Germans for instance, they eally thought that they were invincable until the Winter weather told them different. You can have million untrained soldiers fight 100K well trained soldiers and the 100K would win on tactics alone, the 1 million soldiers would only charge and have no idea in combat.

[Dave]

Funnily enough i like the "What ifs" myself, purely on the fact that it can be a never ending conversation where an input by any one person can change the What if, of another, with his reply to the what if..

Hope that you understood that..

I think I'm starting to catch your drift on that one now Jim !

Orinally posted by CplSmyth:
...you have to look at the way others fought and compare , take the Germans for instance, they eally thought that they were invincable until the Winter weather told them different. You can have million untrained soldiers fight 100K well trained soldiers and the 100K would win on tactics alone, the 1 million soldiers would only charge and have no idea in combat.

But that's not what happened ! What if fact is stranger than fiction ?! :D

A German officer wrote privately as Barbarossa unfolded something along the lines of: An elephant can attack ants and do well at first, but eventually it will be overwhelmed. (Sorry can't find the orig quote). It is true though that in May 1941 the invading Axis forces outnumbered their Soviet counterparts defending their Western borders. About 5 million men - the bulk of them German and the best trained soldiers in the world at that time - faced about 4 million Soviet ground forces. OK the Red Army was paranoid and for the most part badly organised;... and from that point on the Soviets proceeded to recruit 30 million more;... and also eventually diverted battle-hardened Siberian fighters to the western fronts...

Yet the tactical/logistical blunders that caused the invasion to fail were all made by the Germans!!!! No plans to deal with the winter; delayed start to the invasion; delayed advance on Moscow etc. etc....

And the elephant was overcome by the ants !

[Kelly]

Excellent point, very well put dave. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but......

..... the tactical/logistical blunders that caused the invasion to fail....

Am I right in thinking Hitler had taken over as Head of the Military by now and therefore the fault/blame lies directly with him???

[Dave]

Cheers Kelly and yeah, that's the way I understand it.
Hitler had convinced himself he was some kind of military/strategic genius, and was pulling all the strings. He was playing the three Field Marshalls on the Eastern front - Von Bock, Von Rundstedt and Von Leeb - off against each other.
Also one reason he shirked the direct route to Moscow was out of pure superstition, as it had been the same route taken by Napoleon.

I'm getting most of this from Antony Beevor's "Stalingrad" BTW, it's a great read ; )

[Cpl Smyth]

Stalingrad is a very good read, and your correct with the words of Hitlers was ruling the roost, but when the Germans first invaded Russia it was like the invasion of Poland, Belgium, France to name a few. It wasnt until the first winter that things started to go wrong. The winter also gave the time that the Russians needed to organise themselves better to fight of the invasion. The cold weather which at sometime was down to -35 to -40 degrees was what the Germans overlooked in my opinion as this type of weather would stop anything in its tracks.. Could go on but dont want to use all my energy in this one post.